Created by E.M. Rogers in 1962, the Diffusion Theory is a method for understanding the progression of new innovations. His theory breaks down the path a new innovation takes from idea through to a point where the general population can't recall when it didn't exist. He put forth the concept that new ideas, products and even habits follow the same pattern of spreading through a social system. Within a population the people fall into five categories: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and finally laggards. To best understand each category, let's follow the course of a product as it becomes diffused into society.
Innovators are the risk takers. They are the first to try new products or adopt new ideas. In the case of the electric car, the earliest of innovators actually existed back in the 1800s. The first versions of the electric car date back that far. In fact, in the early 1900s they accounted for about gas and steam powered counterparts. However, the electric car got buried when Ford introduced the mass produced Model T. This made gas powered cars cheaper and easier obtain. This first round of electric cars fizzled out.
However, when gas prices began to soar in the 1960s and 70s and an electric car was driven on the moon's service innovators circled back to this solution. Once again, it was a short lived return. The electric cars most of us are familiar with today really began their path to diffusion in the 1990s. Legislation ignited the modern innovations in the electric car with the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment, California's new emission restrictions, and the 1992 Energy Policy Act. Automakers began focusing efforts into modifying their popular models into electric vehicles. Although, the general population drove on in their gas powered cars as the innovation took place behind the scenes.
Mainly scientists and engineers were aware of the progress being made. It is hard to know if these innovators were driven by the cool technology or an actual interest in reduced emissions. A small niche population became obsessed with EV1. Then 2000 the Prius was introduced by Toyota, worldwide. It was the first mass produced hybrid electric vehicle.
Early adopters is the group that is excited by new technology and their belief in the new product drives them to try and establish the product's utility to society. The Prius found early adopters in celebrities like Leonard DiCaprio and Jennifer Aniston. Many of these adapters drove the car as a political message t the world that they care about the environment and are willing to adjust their lifestyle to do their part.
The early majority is a group of people who pave the way for the use of a new product in mainstream society. Between 2004, when Elon Musk invested in and helped establish Tesla in San Carlos, California, and 2010 when chevy released the Volt and Nissan the LEAF; the early majority jumped on the electric car bandwagon. However, the biggest hurdle facing the electric car industry was a lack of charging stations readily available throughout the US. This infrastructure required time and money to give the late majority the comfort level they would need to make the switch from gas powered or hybrids to fully electric cars.
The late majority is the section of the population that waits for the early majority to work out the kinks of a new innovation before following their lead in adopting it into their daily life. With the Recovery Act the Energy Department earmarked over $115 million to build a nation-wide charging infrastructure. By 2014 there were more than 20,000 charging outlets. This made it easier for more of the population to rely on an electric car for their daily commute. Better performing batteries with longer charge range, more power, and durability have made electric vehicles more affordable as well. In addition, Elon Musk became a pop-culture phenomena and his Tesla stands out as the most popular electric cars. They look most like gas powered cars, include cool technology that makes driving more enjoyable, and are very powerful. Tesla probably single-handily did the most to more electric cars toward the mainstream. Today you'd be hard pressed to stop at a light in any given US city and not spot at least one Tesla waiting with you. The electric car will not advance to the next stage of diffusion until more of the general population transitions from gas to electric cars.
The laggards are the section of the population that lag behind the general population in adopting innovative idea or products. It will probably still be quite awhile before the majority of the US population is driving electric cars. Unless there is a gas crisis or another issue that makes the electric car significantly more cost effective for the average American, this transition will take more time. As much as we may feel like we see electric and hybrid cars all around us, the electric car has not completed the path to diffusion. According to my research, less than 1% of the 250 million vehicles on the road in the United States are electric. But from my personal experience, a majority of people from the earlier generation would much rather rely on the type of transportation they've known growing up.
When deciding to go electric, looking at the pros and cons is a necessity. When it comes to pros, the performance and responsibility is a big part of being a Tesla owner and driver. The newer electric vehicles are insanely fast and powerful. They also reduce emissions. Less maintenance required, regenerative breaking means the vehicles use mechanical breaks less, and there are fewer moving parts to break without a combustion engine. The cons do take a toll, with the battery requirements and charging a car can become inconvenient at times. Batteries currently have a shelf life of 10 to 12 years and cost thousand of dollars to replace. Not to mention, when batteries come into contact with saltwater it can cause them to become flammable. Charging stations also are not readily available outside of cities. depending on what type of life a person has from work to destination, owning a Tesla or electric car could make or break your life.
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